Several Taiwanese technology companies are helping Huawei Technologies Co. build infrastructure for an under-the-radar network of chip plants across southern China, an unusual collaboration that risks inflaming sentiment on a democratic island grappling with Beijing’s growing belligerence.
Taiwan’s (the Republic of China’s) alliance with the United States and general defence strategy has a few key factors:
Taiwan is counting on maintaining a key role in the United States’ high-tech economy. One where, if the island of Taiwan were to fall under the control of the mainland, American economic interests would be severely damaged. The existence of semiconductor factories in America doesn’t affect this calculus too much as long as a critical mass of manufacturing stays in Taiwan. In fact, tying Taiwan’s economy to the United States is beneficial because it means the pain of separating it will be greater, and hopefully the fear of such pain will make the Americans want to protect them.
Taiwan believes that its location is of strategic importance to the United States’ South Asian military interests. If the island falls under mainland control, it would mean that the US military can no longer access the large amount of airspace surrounding the island and would lose access to the island’s naval facilities.
Taiwan thinks that it can make a war with the mainland so costly for the latter that it would not make economic sense to invade. This is unrelated to the US; ideology takes a backseat to making money almost anywhere in the world and the Taiwanese know this.
Taiwan thinks it can rely on popular and government support in America to defend it in the event of an invasion. Public support for Taiwan’s continued autonomous existence is quite high in the US and even Joe Biden’s sometimes erratic comments about the topic are enough to make leaders in Beijing think twice before invading. The Americans are unpredictable and they don’t want to leave it up to a roll of the dice.
Taiwan is counting on maintaining a key role in the United States’ high-tech economy. One where, if the island of Taiwan were to fall under the control of the mainland, American economic interests would be severely damaged. The existence of semiconductor factories in America doesn’t affect this calculus too much as long as a critical mass of manufacturing stays in Taiwan. In fact, tying Taiwan’s economy to the United States is beneficial because it means the pain of separating it will be greater, and hopefully the fear of such pain will make the Americans want to protect them.
Exactly my point. The interest of Taiwan Province is to have the critical mass of such manufacturing stay in the RoC, whereas the interest of the US is to have the critical mass of such manufacturing move to the US. Given these divergent strategic interests, it is the best interest of the RoC to sell chips to the US instead of allowing the US to make its own chips. The US doesn’t have a supply alternative to TSMC yet, so exporting RoC tech and factories to the US is weakening the RoC position and creating their own competitor (assuming the US doesn’t fuck up its own factories).
Taiwan thinks that it can make a war with the mainland so costly for the latter that it would not make economic sense to invade. This is unrelated to the US; ideology takes a backseat to making money almost anywhere in the world and the Taiwanese know this.
My dude, the entire ROC military is completely controlled by the KMT. Yeah, a military that’s institutionally controlled by the status quo party is going to fight to the last man while Tsai Ing-wen and William Lai take the first flight to Japan. The government might have transitioned away from a KMT military dictatorship during the 90s, but the actual military hasn’t moved away from its KMT military dictatorship roots, especially the top brass. Taiwanese separatists have a reputation for dodging conscription, so in the end, you have a top brass that’s still nostalgic about the Chiang Ching-kuo days and a bunch of enlisted and conscripted soldiers who don’t care a whole lot about Taiwanese separatism. There’s a reason why the DPP has continuously and successfully run on “the KMT will sell out Taiwan to the CPC” in order to win seats, most recently in the 2020 Taiwanese presidential election.
There’s a decent chance there won’t be an invasion anyways because the KMT cut a backroom deal with the CPC.
Taiwan’s (the Republic of China’s) alliance with the United States and general defence strategy has a few key factors:
Exactly my point. The interest of Taiwan Province is to have the critical mass of such manufacturing stay in the RoC, whereas the interest of the US is to have the critical mass of such manufacturing move to the US. Given these divergent strategic interests, it is the best interest of the RoC to sell chips to the US instead of allowing the US to make its own chips. The US doesn’t have a supply alternative to TSMC yet, so exporting RoC tech and factories to the US is weakening the RoC position and creating their own competitor (assuming the US doesn’t fuck up its own factories).
My dude, the entire ROC military is completely controlled by the KMT. Yeah, a military that’s institutionally controlled by the status quo party is going to fight to the last man while Tsai Ing-wen and William Lai take the first flight to Japan. The government might have transitioned away from a KMT military dictatorship during the 90s, but the actual military hasn’t moved away from its KMT military dictatorship roots, especially the top brass. Taiwanese separatists have a reputation for dodging conscription, so in the end, you have a top brass that’s still nostalgic about the Chiang Ching-kuo days and a bunch of enlisted and conscripted soldiers who don’t care a whole lot about Taiwanese separatism. There’s a reason why the DPP has continuously and successfully run on “the KMT will sell out Taiwan to the CPC” in order to win seats, most recently in the 2020 Taiwanese presidential election.
There’s a decent chance there won’t be an invasion anyways because the KMT cut a backroom deal with the CPC.