The ABC can reveal the results of YouGov's latest MRP model, which finds the Peter Dutton-led Coalition would be likely to win about 73 seats if an election was held today.
Kevin Bonham predicts 51 to 49 going to the L-NP (https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/). Based on Antony Green’s Swingometer and the 2022 preference flows that means about 74 seats to the L-NP with a 0.5% swing to them (https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2022/guide/calculator). That is minority government though. They need 76 seats to form government, so it would be a deal with two independents. Which ones? If you can remember the minority government Gillard successfully ran, it meant they were under continual attack by Abbott. But it also means the ALP could form minority government, given they would have 71 seats under that scenario, and would need five independents to form government. I wonder if they would be able to pull that off – possibly more likely than the L-NP picking up two independents for a stable government, especially with Dutton in power. The so called Teal independents would want nothing to do with him, neither the Greens.
Best case scenario frankly is minority govt with greens holding balance of power. Much more chance of getting better legislation passed when greens have to be listened to.
Kevin Bonham predicts 51 to 49 going to the L-NP (https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/). Based on Antony Green’s Swingometer and the 2022 preference flows that means about 74 seats to the L-NP with a 0.5% swing to them (https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2022/guide/calculator). That is minority government though. They need 76 seats to form government, so it would be a deal with two independents. Which ones? If you can remember the minority government Gillard successfully ran, it meant they were under continual attack by Abbott. But it also means the ALP could form minority government, given they would have 71 seats under that scenario, and would need five independents to form government. I wonder if they would be able to pull that off – possibly more likely than the L-NP picking up two independents for a stable government, especially with Dutton in power. The so called Teal independents would want nothing to do with him, neither the Greens.
Best case scenario frankly is minority govt with greens holding balance of power. Much more chance of getting better legislation passed when greens have to be listened to.
Agreed.