• dumbass@leminal.space
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    19 hours ago

    It’s 1:4 but everytime the card is played a new set of 1:4 starts, so fuck knows what the actual odds are.

    • null@slrpnk.net
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      2 hours ago

      It’s 1:4 but everytime the card is played a new set of 1:4 starts

      Of course it does, or the odds wouldn’t be 1 in 4…

      If you flip a coin, you “start” a new set of 1 in 2 odds too – that’s what makes it always 50/50

    • brsrklf@jlai.lu
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      8 hours ago

      Humans are bad at probability, and that’s mostly why they gamble too.

      Every wheel draw is supposed to be independent (it’s not totally so because computer “random” is really a pseudo-random algorithm, but close enough). So every time you draw, the odds are 1:4. Previous draws don’t matter.

      On an infinitely large number of draws, you’d see a 1/4 success rate. This doesn’t mean you can’t fail a dozen times in a row (the probability of that is (3/4)^12, about 3%… It happens).