• 7 Posts
  • 74 Comments
Joined 1 year ago
Cake day: August 17th, 2023
  • Ronin_5@lemmygrad.mltoLate Stage Capitalism@lemmygrad.ml•The truth about inflation (animated explainer)
    61·
    9 months ago

    So that was a load of crap that doesn’t go into the causes of inflation. Here’s a brief summary of how inflation actually works:

    Inflation is when the value of a good grows IN PROPORTION to the value of money. Yes, both things have value independent of each other, and as such, we can see supply driven inflation if a country’s currency is devalued with respect to other countries, as it makes it difficult to import feedstock.

    There are two primary causes of inflation: supply driven inflation, and demand driven inflation. Supply driven inflation is when not enough goods are produced, as with covid supply chain disruptions. Demand driven inflation is when demand grows with respect to supply, as with using graphics cards to mine bitcoin.

    It should be noted that even these are market forces caused by suppliers and consumers, suppliers and consumers themselves don’t directly set prices. The people who own the suppliers do. They must read and manipulate market conditions in order to get the most profit out of their product.

    During covid, we have had supply driven inflation due to supply chain disruptions, and hoarding to a lesser degree. However, when these issues have been resolved, we haven’t witnessed prices going back to normal. This is because the bourgeois have successfully read and manipulated market conditions.

    In a way, what the bourge has done is a variant of the application of the mass line. They saw that material conditions had forced consumers to acclimate to higher prices, making the conditions ripe for another price increase. So that’s what they did, then they sold it as the new normal.

    TBC

  • Ronin_5@lemmygrad.mltoUS News@lemmygrad.ml•Today I learned that DTCC, which owns vast majority of the stocks in the market, was founded by a CIA agent by the name of William Dentzer.
    1·
    9 months ago
    spoiler

    Market makers routing buy orders through dark pools to prevent buying pressure from pushing the price upward, while routing sell order to the open market, will cause the price to fall even if the buy to sell ratio is high on the buy side.

    Then these market makers would intentionally be temporarily manipulating the price to be on the end of a losing trade, since they bought high and sold low.

    Buy to sell ratios are consistently showing higher buy to sell yet price seems completely unaffected.

    I’m assuming you’re talking about the bid/ask ratio on the order book, which is a list of unfilled orders. There’s multiple reasons for this kind of market structure, which could be interpreted as either bullish or bearish. They can either be exits for shorts or enters for longs. But objectively, this creates support for the price which prevents it from falling too far down, not necessary causes it to rise.

    The rest of your points are valid, but they’re mostly controls to dampen excessive price volatility, which fucks up limit and stop orders.

    What correlates to stock price the most isn’t profit or assets, but rather revenue. How large a company is, is based on how much moolah that it’s able to bring in. Looking at GME’s revenue, it’s down to 60% of its highest revenue in 2011, not accounting for inflation. Since its restructuring, it’s had negative EBITDA and negative cash flow. You can say that it’s kind of stopped the bleeding by switching to non-obsolete revenue streams. But overall, it has downsized and it’s still not profitable.

    If anything, the price of the stock is Inflated by the hype, rather than suppressed. When DFV bought in, the market cap to book ratio was roughly 0.5, which indicates that it was severely undervalued, especially for such a high profile company. Now it’s around 2, which is around average for a company that’s profitable.

  • Ronin_5@lemmygrad.mltoUS News@lemmygrad.ml•Today I learned that DTCC, which owns vast majority of the stocks in the market, was founded by a CIA agent by the name of William Dentzer.
    31·
    9 months ago

    Right. So I do stock analysis, and while a lot of what the gme guys say are technically true, it doesn’t have that much of an impact on the stock price.

    As with organizing and revolution, the only thing that really affects the stock price is mass movement. And that is usually affected by potential performance of the company.

    If you look at order books, you can see people sink billions into orders, hoping to have the next tick break the trend, only for it to be reversed in the subsequent ticks.

    GME is underperforming. Its revenue is declining yoy. It has neither the resources nor a concrete plan to recovery. The only reason it’s been hyped so much was because one person made a lot money and was very public about it. It’s not because of some mythical MOASS. In fact, I suspect that it’s a viral ad campaign by GME perpetuating capitalist realism; you can break the system if you buy the right product (like GME stock)

    Contrast with EDU stock (XinDongFang). Though their revenue was massively hit by the new Chinese laws, their financials show that they had a massive amount of cash in the bank, and their stock was extremely undervalued. This shows that they had the potential to pivot to a new market, and that they did, leading to a recovery.