Great points!

Please point out anything in this article that is not 100% true. All the article is doing is reporting on what Ukrainian politicians have openly said.

Here’s an archive link if you cannot access RT because your country does not want you to have access to viewpoints contradicting the official narrative:

https://archive.ph/20260121173502/https://www.rt.com/russia/631286-kiev-mayor-humanitarian-catastrophe-zelensky/

Have you even read it? They’re literally just reporting on what Ukrainian politicians are saying. This article contains zero editorializing. Please point out a single thing in this article that is not factual.

The IMF has been pillaging Ukraine since 2014, this is nothing new. They’ve already had a ton of privatization and deregulation (to enable sale of land and state property to foreign capital) forced upon them. This is just the logical next step in the sale of the country and its people to western capital. This is why i am firmly of the opinion that the only thing that can save Ukraine is full annexation by Russia, who could then declare all of the deals made with the IMF and western countries null and void. Unfortunately it doesn’t look like Russia wants to take on that burden.

It is very sad what has happened to Ukraine and what will continue to happen. All the more so because it is partly self-inflicted, like in Argentina.

It’s only economic violence when it hurts the bottom line of corporations.

Easy way to spot a German speaker, no one else uses that term to refer to a mobile phone. The adoption of these sorts of pseudo-anglicisms into various languages is actually quite common.

Notice how when it’s Chinese people doing it, simply offering a good deal is called “luring”. Everything has to have a sinister undertone.

Lol, China literally has the most predictable governance in the world. They are conservative to a fault and publicly announce and write all of their plans down a minimum of five years in advance.

The only way you could be surprised by anything China does is if you are incapable of reading.

The Davos WEF meeting this year is already a complete shit show, the European elites are in total panic mode, and i have a feeling the funniest moments are yet to come. Grab your popcorn, sit back, and enjoy the disintegration of the transatlantic project and the humiliation of Europe.

I especially liked this sentence:

Who benefits, aside from the environment? It’s actually hard to say.

The only beneficiary is the environment? How tragic.

The people enjoying cheap electricity are not benefiting apparently.

I agree. Overall surprisingly good.

Interesting article. Although it seems to me like a lot of the “chaos” described here is a product of using markets to manage distribution and production rather than central planning. Or rather, it only looks like chaos if you look at individual parts of the system in isolation through the lens of market logic, but you miss the overarching planning that is happening on national level in China. A “can’t see the forest for the trees” situation.

Perfectly logical if you’re a coke addled fascist dictator and want to rig elections.

Update: the Germans ran away after less than 3 days

The US is NATO. NATO doesn’t exist without it.

The entire European deployment:

Germany 13, Norway 2, UK 1

With this they have reached the limit of their capabilities and exhausted their 2026 budget.

He has a lot more sources in this article than just his own tweets. Out of several dozen sources linked in the article i counted five times that he linked to his own tweets. Four of those just have videos from other sources embedded, with the logo of where the video is from visible in the video. The fifth is showing and commenting on a Polymarket tweet. I agree that he should have linked those sources directly rather than over the extra step of going through his own Twitter account. This is self-promoting but it doesn’t make the sourcing of the article less solid.

How will that happen, an invasion of the whole territory seem possible to you ?

Possible, yes, if the regime or its military collapse. Likely? No. Russia does not want to occupy all of Ukraine. They are more likely to install a friendly government in Kiev and let them deal with the rest while Russia takes majority ethnic Russian regions like Odessa and Kharkov.

I think it’ll end up with a negotiation as said previously

Most wars end with some kind of negotiation. But the question here is: negotiation with who? The current regime in Kiev appears unwilling/incapable of negotiating, and its legitimacy to negotiate is legally dubious anyway considering that their legal term expired and elections have been cancelled. Any agreement made with an illegitimate government might be itself considered illegitimate. This is something that needs to be resolved before an official peace deal is signed.

i’m curious to know if you’d attempt a more precise prediction for this year.

The only prediction I will make is that Russia will keep advancing, Ukraine’s military and political crisis will get worse, and Ukraine and its Western backers will attempt more provocations to cause some sort of escalation of the conflict beyond Ukraine. That is all I am certain of.

i.d.k. why they haven’t yet, retreating from Kiev at the end of March and mostly defending their line afterwards instead of attacking

It’s actually pretty simple why they retreated from Kiev in 2022: because they did not intend and were not prepared for a prolonged occupation - they went in with far too few forces for that.

All that the maneuver toward Kiev was intended to do was bring the Ukrainians to the negotiating table. That succeeded. Then the West intervened and convinced the Ukrainians to abandon negotiations. So the Russian presence around Kiev no longer served a purpose once the SMO turned into a prolonged war of attrition.

Since then Russia has reorganized and switched from a peacetime expeditionary force to a real war time army mostly focused on destroying Ukraine’s (and NATO’s) fighting power instead of taking territory, which serves one of their main goals: demilitarization.

When either the Kiev regime or the Ukrainian armed forces collapse the Russians can occupy as much of Ukraine as they want. Which is why it is in Ukraine’s advantage to make peace as soon as possible and why they are in no position to demand any concessions from Russia, because it can only get worse for them the longer they draw it out.

I understand that it will be hard to accept for Ukraine but there is no chance of another referendum happening where they already had one. That would signal to the population of those regions, who are now officially Russian citizens, that Russia is not serious about protecting them, that Russia lied about viewing them as an integral part of the Russian nation, and instead sees them as a bargaining chip that can be given away as a “concession”.

Also, if the remnant of Ukraine is allowed into the EU (something which countries like Hungary vehemently oppose) it will be a massive poison pill, an economic and security black hole for the rest of the union only speeding up the demise of the EU. Russia would not mind that.

I don’t downvote comments that are arguing in good faith and i am not angry in the slightest, i don’t know what gave you that impression. We’re just having a friendly discussion which i am quite enjoying.

Wouldn’t you agree that they seem to have changed their mind since the last year, being now more inclined towards a negotiated settlement that doesn’t come ?

No, i see no indication of that. They still categorically refuse to agree to most of Russia’s core demands, and instead they make completely absurd demands of Russia, as if they were the ones winning on the battlefield and not the Russians.

They are either delusional or they are desperate to keep the money train going for as long as possible, because once the conflict stops their opportunities to fill their pockets with Western money will significantly dry up.

Here’s the russian’s June 2024 demands. So, i think that Ukraine could accept them, by asking for these economic promises and later referendums in surplus, since it’s not forbidden to add their conditions to the russian ones.
I think that both sides could end up agreeing on these conditions.

I think the current regime in Kiev is never going to accept those demands. And Russia is not going to accept anything less than those demands. If a different government were to come to power in Kiev then sure, they can negotiate a lot of economic benefits from Russia, so long as they accept those basic points. Referendums in the territories that already had them are probably still a no-go.

Even if it’s a 2050 referendum from these regions […] ?

What point is there to holding a referendum in 2050? Why would the result be any different than in 2022? These regions are already overwhelmingly Russian and will only get more Russian as time goes on. The DPR and LPR already have autonomy within Russia. Why would they give that up to be subordinated to a government in Kiev again? I just don’t see the point and I don’t see any Russian government going for something like this. If there is any internal reorganization within Russia it will probably be by administrative decision.

They were pro-u.s.s.r. in the past, they can become pro-Rus again. […] And if you disagree and claim that Kiev, for example, will never rejoin its old side again, then we’ll both disagree, and so be it.

No i don’t disagree with that. I think there is a good chance that sooner or later Ukraine will turn back toward Russia. It just makes the most sense geographically, economically and culturally for them. I still don’t see any world in which they get Donbass and Crimea back.