• soumerd_retardataire@lemmygrad.ml
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    2 months ago

    At first, i agreed with the explanations based on the lack of cohesion of the democratic party, and the influence of Palestine, on the votes :

    With most votes counted, the 2024 election elected D.Trump with ~73M votes vs. ~68M for K.Harris, compared to 2020 when D.Trump was rejected despite having the same numbers(, 74.2M,) and J.Biden was elected with 81.3M votes.
    Furthermore, D.Trump would have received less votes without influent people like Robert Kennedy Jr. on his side, who still received votes apparently.
    However, third parties like the libertarian party or the Green party received much more votes in 2016 than in 2024(, and the republican&democratic parties much less). Having gained 1M votes at most wouldn’t have that much of an impact.
    While i can’t deny the influence of many pro-Palestine actors, i can’t really prove it by the numbers either, and some deny it, the voter turnout was high.
    I only took a superficial look, so i don’t doubt that there’re many americans here who could easily correct my mistakes if they want to

      • soumerd_retardataire@lemmygrad.ml
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        2 months ago

        Counterpoint :) :

        Also, the high voter turnout doesn’t favor the alternative of a boycott.

        Only 2020 saw a higher voter turnout apparently, possibly because of the mail-in ballots

        • multitotal@lemmygrad.ml
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          2 months ago

          It says those are expected vote totals for states where less than 97 percent of the vote has been counted. Trump is gonna end up with some 73.000.000 votes, while Kamala has 68.000.000 right now, Biden received 81.200.000 in 2020. That’s 14 million fewer votes overall than in 2020. That sounds to me like a lot of Dem voters didn’t show up.

          • soumerd_retardataire@lemmygrad.ml
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            2 months ago

            It says those are expected vote totals for states where less than 97 percent of the vote has been counted

            We may have understood it the same way, yet just to be sure : The turnout is counted normally, except for states where less than 97% of the votes are counted, in which case the reported turnout has been replaced by the expected turnout.

            That sounds to me like a lot of Dem voters didn’t show up

            You’re right, if they didn’t voted for third parties, if the votes are mostly counted, if the voter turnout is the same, and if republicans didn’t received more votes than in 2020, then where did these 14M votes went ?
            Thanks for confirming that i’m missing something, don’t know if you or someone here have the explanation.

            • multitotal@lemmygrad.ml
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              2 months ago

              Well, they haven’t counted all the votes yet, but it seems that 158.000.000 total votes were cast according to an analyst from UFL, who gets info from the bureau of elections or whatever. If Trump has 73M and Kamala has 68M votes, some 2.4M have voted third party. I guess that means there are still some 14.5 million votes to be counted.

              Which seems like a lot, doesn’t it? I don’t know what’s going on, perhaps we’re making some error somewhere.

              • soumerd_retardataire@lemmygrad.ml
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                2 months ago

                And if they don’t have the same source, it confirms the WaPo’s 65% with its 64.52%(, in the VEP_TURNOUT_RATE column)

                perhaps we’re making some error somewhere

                Yeah, you’re right, it’s too obvious, anyone can do 72.6M+68M+2.2M and easily see that it’s only ~143M out of 158.5, so we’re indeed making an obvious mistake somewhere

                • IHave69XiBucks@lemmygrad.ml
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                  2 months ago

                  While it is probably just that they werent counted yet can we atleast entertain the funniest outcome which is that after 4 years of yelling about how the election was stolen from him Trump actually stole the election, and hacked the voting machines or something? And a lot of the missing votes were fake? I just think it would be so funny I’d love to see how liberals reacted to that once its revealed. Like theyd probably just go “well shucks guess next time we wont let that happen”.

                  • soumerd_retardataire@lemmygrad.ml
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                    2 months ago

                    Just a note on this :

                    While it is probably just that they werent counted yet

                    It’s unrelated to the rest of your comment, but i wanted to underline something here : California has 25.2M eligible voters(, based on the VEP column from the document given by @multitotal above). If we’ve only counted half of their votes, then it’s there that we’ll find most of the missing 15.5M votes.
                    Since California overwhelmingly votes Democrat(, appr. 66%-33%), then it’s probably fair to assume 10M more votes for K.Harris and 5M for D.Trump, and they’re separated by 4M votes.
                    In the end, Kamala Harris probably got more votes than Donald Trump but i’ve yet to read a newspaper saying. Even if it won’t change the outcome of the election obviously, and i was too young/uninterested in 2016 to say if newspapers correctly reported from the beginning that H.Clinton ended up with more votes than D.Trump, i think that something so obvious/easy should have been noticed, or perhaps that they don’t care, like me.

                    Just to add that everyone’s explaining these results by the votes of minorities, even if it’s mostly white people voting republican(, confirmations : 1, 2, 3, 4, …), yet when we look at it, it didn’t evolve that much between 2012 and 2020(, here’s for 2020, and here’s for 2024. I’m not saying that there’s nothing to say about the hispanic vote, but it just feels less pertinent once you see the ups&downs, i.d.k., there’s probably more pertinent infos, such as the inflation or something, here’s my 2cts on your election 🤷.