The most that the EU has done is sanctioning a dozen of individual extremist colonizers for their crimes on palestinians.
There were some talks of sanctions last september, but it’s doubtful that it would have led to anything with, e.g., Germany or Italy opposing it, among other european states.
Oh yeah, i know that people here already know that. Just one more double standard to the list.
You probably already know that Mohammad Mossadegh in Iran was overthrown by the west two years after nationalizing Iran’s oil in 1958, but did you know that the same thing happened a decade earlier for Rómulo Gallegos, 9 months after implementing a 50-50 share of Venezuela’s oil in 1948 ?
He wasn’t replaced by a western-backed bloodthirsty king, but by one of our many western-backed bloodthirsty dictator, Pérez Jiménez, who received the Legion of Merit in 1954 for its anti-communist activities.
Guatemala also had a similar experience when it nationalized territories from the United Fruit Company(, 1954), or when S.Allende nationalized copper in 1971, or Syria in 1949, Congo in 1960, … Because their ressources are ours.
They should increase the prices of the raw materials as OPEC did in 1973, unite together, and nationalize their ressources. They’ll be sanctioned/overthrown/attacked/invaded/…
Edit : I.d.k. how they managed to get such estimation, even if there wasn’t an internet blackout, but western estimations are that « at least 12.000, and possibly as many as 20.000 people have been killed. » (here)
Such obvious lie(, since there’s no way to know, that was the whole debate in Palestine,) is believed by everyone, of course. It’d still be less than what our sanctions killed.
It’s actually pretty simple why they retreated from Kiev in 2022: because they did not intend and were not prepared for a prolonged occupation - they went in with far too few forces for that.
All that the maneuver toward Kiev was intended to do was bring the Ukrainians to the negotiating table. That succeeded. Then the West intervened and convinced the Ukrainians to abandon negotiations. So the Russian presence around Kiev no longer served a purpose once the SMO turned into a prolonged war of attrition.
Since then Russia has reorganized and switched from a peacetime expeditionary force to a real war time army mostly focused on destroying Ukraine’s (and NATO’s) fighting power instead of taking territory, which serves one of their main goals: demilitarization.
When either the Kiev regime or the Ukrainian armed forces collapse the Russians can occupy as much of Ukraine as they want. Which is why it is in Ukraine’s advantage to make peace as soon as possible and why they are in no position to demand any concessions from Russia, because it can only get worse for them the longer they draw it out.
I understand that it will be hard to accept for Ukraine but there is no chance of another referendum happening where they already had one. That would signal to the population of those regions, who are now officially Russian citizens, that Russia is not serious about protecting them, that Russia lied about viewing them as an integral part of the Russian nation, and instead sees them as a bargaining chip that can be given away as a “concession”.
Also, if the remnant of Ukraine is allowed into the EU (something which countries like Hungary vehemently oppose) it will be a massive poison pill, an economic and security black hole for the rest of the union only speeding up the demise of the EU. Russia would not mind that.
How will that happen, a full-scale invasion seem possible to you ?
It seems to me that Ukraine cannot progress further, and Russia either can’t or refuses to.
I think it’ll end up with a negotiation as said previously(, i.e. Ukraine in the e.u., but demilitarized and not in the n.a.t.o., with the risks it entails), i’m curious to know if you’d attempt a more precise prediction for this year.
Possible, yes, if the regime or its military collapse. Likely? No. Russia does not want to occupy all of Ukraine. They are more likely to install a friendly government in Kiev and let them deal with the rest while Russia takes majority ethnic Russian regions like Odessa and Kharkov.
Most wars end with some kind of negotiation. But the question here is: negotiation with who? The current regime in Kiev appears unwilling/incapable of negotiating, and its legitimacy to negotiate is legally dubious anyway considering that their legal term expired and elections have been cancelled. Any agreement made with an illegitimate government might be itself considered illegitimate. This is something that needs to be resolved before an official peace deal is signed.
The only prediction I will make is that Russia will keep advancing, Ukraine’s military and political crisis will get worse, and Ukraine and its Western backers will attempt more provocations to cause some sort of escalation of the conflict beyond Ukraine. That is all I am certain of.
How though ?
You’re excluding a russian occupation of Ukraine, so have you something else in mind to make it happen ?