This is a thread specifically for the war, not a general megathread (use the pinned /c/genzedong thread for that).
Please keep related news in this thread rather than making separate posts. Remember to include sources and avoid spreading rumours.
From HB news mega (post body, “Stuck In A (Thucydides) Bear Trap”)
spoiler
more like thucydideez nuts, gottem
Image is of a satellite image from MizarVision, a Chinese firm that has recently shown pride in being sanctioned for showing uncensored images of the Middle East. The West is not allowing up-to-date satellite imagery of the region to hide destruction.
As always, my weekly summary/preamble is in spoilers below.
preamble
Military news remained relatively subdued last week, with the main front continuing to be the Lebanon border. With dozens of vehicles destroyed and many more Zionist casualties, they are now desperately searching for a solution to the FPV drone threat, with certain analysts characterizing the whole situation as the entity stumbling foot-first into a bear trap (hence the megathread title). Unfortunately for them, two better and more resourceful militaries have spent the last year or two also searching for a solution and have generally failed - with anti-drone strategies consisting mainly of 1) build your own cheap drones designed to physically intercept their cheap drones and 2) separate your forces up rather than conducting large frontal assaults WW2-style and accept that you’re gonna have to fight for many months to gain substantial ground. This also explains why they’re so eager to kickstart a civil war in Lebanon, although as I’ve stated before, I don’t personally know whether that would be a silver bullet given how the Lebanese army has been deliberately not allowed to become a threatening force due to Zionist fears, and indeed, I don’t know how many Lebanese citizens and soldiers would fight against the only force in their country fighting against an army trying to annex their territory and which murders hundreds of people at a time in aerial bombings on their cities.
Aside from the ever-worsening global economic catastrophe, the main event has been the US visiting China. Trump clearly intended to time the summit such that it took place after subjugating Iran and perhaps also Cuba. However, with the former goal not even remotely achieved, and the latter goal delayed - hopefully indefinitely, though the US still seems pretty intent on it - it all amounted to a big nothingburger. Marxist economist Michael Roberts has written up a great piece on the current state of the US-China economic conflict, stating among things that, despite the last decade of US sanctions and economic warfare, the Chinese economy has done extremely well, building up their own domestic industries to replace commodities lost from sanctions. China has, up to this point, refused to withdraw its aid from Iran, and seems to be looking to start moving its tankers through the Strait via Iran’s new tolling mechanism.
China obviously continues to maintain its position on Taiwan, and Trump has continued the US tradition of respecting this in words and disrespecting it in actions, but it’s becoming clear to everybody but the most delusional diehards that the US will not be fighting China in and around the Pacific for at least a couple decades, and likely never will. There is little choice. The Ramadan War has definitively proven that the US has been severely militarily and logistically weakened over the decades despite skyrocketing military budgets, and much of their equipment, strategies, and tactics are woefully outdated for the modern battlefield. The prospect of the US fighting a war against China and not immediately losing has gone from “almost implausible” to “hilariously absurd”. Unable to meaningfully impede China, the US will have to content itself to increasingly ineffective sanctions campaigns and bullying/overthrowing nations that do not currently have much of a capacity to resist. In that vein, one hopes that Iran and friends will share their expertise in drone technology and underground fortification around the world. The age of the tunnel is upon us.
Source: https://lemmygrad.ml/post/11648191 (post body)
And so it begins - reject the aviation class, commence THE CENTURY OF THE MOLE
Pentagon reverses course, deploys 5,000 US troops to Poland under Trump’s orders President Trump’s policy reversals are creating ‘confusion’ in the Pentagon regarding policy toward Europe and NATO
—❗️🇮🇷/🇵🇰/🇺🇸 NEW: Pakistani Field Marshal Assim Muneer’s planned trip to Tehran tonight has been canceled
@Middle_East_Spectator
🇮🇷❌️🇺🇸🇧🇭🇦🇪 — Ali Akbar Velayati, Advisor to the Supreme Leader for International Affairs:
－Washington will have no foothold left in the West Asia region.
－The UAE and Bahrain have taken the worst stances regarding the American-Israeli aggression against Iran.
@SimurghRes
💠 Passage of 31 vessels including oil tankers, container ships, and other commercial ships coordinated by the IRGC Navy through the Strait of Hormuz
🔹 According to the Public Relations of the IRGC Navy, in the past 24 hours, 31 vessels including oil tankers, container ships, and other commercial ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz with coordination and security provided by the IRGC Navy.
🔹 The IRGC Navy announced: Despite the aggression of the terrorist US military and the unprecedented insecurity created throughout the Persian Gulf, especially in the Strait of Hormuz, the IRGC Navy endeavored to establish a clear and safe route for passage and the continuation of global trade.
— 🇮🇷 NEW: The Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) has published an official map of Iran’s area of supervision over the Strait of Hormuz
@Middle_East_Spectator
https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/32252
Syria’s self-appointed president receives invite to attend G7 summit in France: Report
Damascus is in the midst of an economic crisis that has seen prices of fuel and electricity skyrocket, even as 90 percent of the population lives in poverty
Iranian Revolutionary Guard Intelligence:
After the unsuccessful attacks of June 13 and March 23, and the collapse of the blockade on April 13, the White House’s assumptions regarding the ease and speed of operations against the Islamic Republic of Iran proved to be incorrect.
- US intelligence agencies concluded: “Time is not on our side, and to escape this multi-layered predicament, Iran’s initiative and threat must be taken seriously.”
@SimurghRes
🇮🇷🇺🇸| Iran’s MFA spokesman to IRNA:
None of the speculations raised in recent days regarding various aspects of the negotiations are confirmed.
At this stage, the focus of the negotiations is on ending the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, and the claims made in the media about nuclear issues, including HEU materials or enrichment discussions, are merely media speculations and lack credibility.
@FotrosResistancee
❗️Israel’s daily raids threaten to destroy southern Syria’s farming lifeline
Israeli occupation forces intensified attacks on southern Syria on 19 May, shelling farmland near Taranja in northern Quneitra and carrying out repeated incursions into agricultural areas and populated villages in Quneitra and Daraa, The New Arab reported.
Local sources said Israeli operations have become almost daily, spreading panic among residents and farmers who fear a wider Israeli escalation.
The attacks now threaten the agricultural season, the main source of income for many families in the border region.
The latest attacks followed Israeli raids on 18 May in Wadi al-Raqqad near Jomla, where tanks and military vehicles advanced into the area.
Israeli forces also fired shells and machine guns near Tel Ahmar, crossed the Ofania–Khan Arnabah road, and raided several homes in Al-Asha before withdrawing.
🇱🇧❌🇮🇱 — Hezbollah unveils an “Ababil” helicopter and claims to carry out 3 operations with it during the day.
@SimurghRes
EXCLUSIVE: Hezbollah warns direct talks with Israel ‘threaten Lebanese coexistence’ MP Ibrahim al-Moussawi slammed authorities for meeting face-to-face with Israeli officials after vowing not to ‘negotiate under fire’
❗️US threatens to revoke Palestinian UN delegation visas over ambassador’s bid for UN General Assembly vice presidency
NPR reported on 20 May that a sensitive but unclassified US State Department cable instructed US officials in Jerusalem to pressure Palestinian officials into withdrawing Palestinian UN Ambassador Riyad Mansour’s candidacy for one of the 21 vice president positions at the UN General Assembly, warning of possible consequences including visa revocations for the Palestinian delegation to the United Nations.
The cable, dated 19 May and obtained by NPR, said Mansour “has a history of accusing Israel of genocide,” and claimed his candidacy “fuels tension” and undermines President Donald Trump’s so-called Gaza peace plan.
The cable warned that “Congress will take it extremely seriously” and stated that “it would be unfortunate to have to revisit any available options,” referring to a previous 2025 decision by the Trump administration to waive visa sanctions on Palestinian officials assigned to the PLO’s UN Observer Mission in New York.
NPR noted that the threat is considered unprecedented, particularly given the 1947 UN Headquarters Agreement, which generally bars the US from blocking UN officials from entering New York.
Former senior State Department official Hady Amr told NPR the move was “extremely rare” outside cases such as espionage or election interference, calling it “counterproductive” because diplomats are needed “to work out problems between countries.”
The State Department told NPR it takes its obligations under the UN Headquarters Agreement seriously but declined to comment on specific visa matters.
The report also noted that Mansour had already withdrawn a previous bid for president of the UN General Assembly earlier this year after US lobbying efforts.
Elections for vice president positions are scheduled for 2 June, with Palestinian representatives remaining on the Asia-Pacific candidate list alongside countries including Afghanistan, Iraq, and Mongolia.
The cable reportedly warned of a “worst-case scenario” in which a Palestinian vice president could preside over high-profile UN sessions.
NPR highlighted Mansour’s increasingly prominent role at the UN, including emotional speeches condemning the killing of Palestinian civilians in Gaza and repeated calls for a ceasefire.
❗️Netanyahu coalition moves to dissolve Knesset as Haredi draft crisis pushes Israel toward early elections
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition on 20 May passed a preliminary bill to dissolve the Knesset, opening the door to early elections amid a deepening dispute with ultra-Orthodox (haredi) parties over legislation that would determine whether more haredi men can continue to avoid military service, according to The Jerusalem Post.
The bill passed unanimously, 110–0, and must still clear three additional readings before taking effect. If approved, it would move elections forward from the currently scheduled date of 27 October to as early as September or mid-October, since Israeli law requires at least 90 days between the dissolution of parliament and a national vote.
At the center of the crisis is the highly controversial haredi draft bill. Netanyahu has been trying to preserve his coalition by advancing legislation that would largely satisfy ultra-Orthodox parties, whose communities have long received broad exemptions from compulsory military service. The issue has become increasingly explosive as the Israeli army warns of a severe manpower shortage after more than two years of war.
The ultra-Orthodox Degel Hatorah faction says it no longer trusts Netanyahu and continues to support dissolving the Knesset. By introducing the bill itself rather than allowing the opposition to do so, the coalition retains greater control over the timing of elections and over any final legislative push before a possible collapse of the government.
