Image is of the first nuclear icebreaker ever built, the Lenin, which entered service in 1957 in the USSR and decommissioned in 1989. It is now a museum ship in Murmansk. I just think it’s neat.

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My weekly preamble is in spoiler tags below.

preamble

The last week has had a lot of Trump admin dipshittery that isn’t important enough to be worth remarking on, so I’m just going to skip right past all that. The sanctions campaign against Iran appears to have stalled before it even left the starting line, with China saying that, nope, they aren’t going to cut off their ally for the sake of their enemy. From what I’ve gathered from Naked Capitalism’s (albeit limited) reporting on the state of Iran’s economy, the impression I get is that while inflation is running kinda wild, everything else, including state revenues, are doing sufficiently well that there isn’t going to be an economic collapse this year nor probably next year if we assume a continued no-deal situation over Hormuz.

The underlying geopolitical situation has had some interesting little developments. Iran and Oman appears to have worked out their plan for joint control over Hormuz. Ansarallah is continuing their explosive campaign against the Saudis, who are now begging the US for help. Additionally, the ever-barking never-biting Türkiye is showing some signs that they might soon, finally, after three years of witnessing outright genocide, do 1 (one) (the first numerical digit) action that isn’t to the Zionist’s direct benefit, by putting up a modicum of resistance in defence of their puppet in Syria; but, quite frankly, I’m not holding my breath on anything truly substantial happening while Erdogan’s in charge.

The state of oil flows in and around Hormuz are very hotly debated right now. Many of the oil flow numbers can be dismissed out of hand because they aren’t reflective of the reality of Iranian control and vision of the strait. Due to the narrowness of the strait, full visual coverage of the ships travelling through the channel can be achieved with technology no more advanced than a dozen people with binoculars and a not-especially-tall mountain. However, figures that are around 3-5 million barrels per day (compared to the pre-war 20 million per day) seems plausible when including Iran allowing some allied vessels out (notably Iraqi and Chinese vessels, among others). This, plus China’s rather odd actions in the oil market over the last six months, have resulted in the US’s SPR now draining at “only” 4-6 million barrels per week, compared to 8-9 earlier in the war. However, the war’s impact on fertilizer and diesel stockpiles and prices are now unignorable even to those with their heads in the sand, with anxiety steadily building in the mainstream media about food crises next year.

Meanwhile, Trump has decided to pick fights with Canada due to their strange unwillingness to graciously hand over their sovereignty to the US, with the two countries now in a tariff war. That being said, oil seems to be one product that neither side wants to fight over: the US needs a producer, and Canada needs a customer. The only other country in the vicinity with major oil reserves is Venezuela, who has been in the news a lot lately for precisely this reason, but they simply don’t have the production to do much of anything to alleviate the US’s stockpile issues and likely still won’t by the time Trump has left office, and so they can be safely dismissed as a significant player in this ongoing global energy conflict.

On the subject of naval trade routes, a fascinating development is that Russia has finally unveiled the Northern Sea Route as a regular maritime passage, with a small fleet of eight Chinese vessels taking the route as a test run in mid-August. From Shanghai to Hamburg, the route is a little over 7000 nautical miles and goes through no chokepoints (though I suppose the Bering Strait could hypothetically become one), compared to the Suez route which is nearly 11,000 nautical miles and goes through three chokepoints (Malacca, Bab el-Mandab, Suez). Russia has the world’s only nuclear icebreaker fleet, and the increased power from those reactors is necessary to provide the sheer force to break up the ice along the route, making them even more uniquely situated to benefit from the route. Many countries, China foremost among them, have identified the advantage of not being subject to chokepoints and hostile waters as the US navy continues its rapid transition to outright piracy, so it’ll be interesting to see to what extent the route is adopted in the coming years.

Chinese President Xi Jinping urged West Asian and North African countries on Wednesday to reject outside interference and consider restructuring the region’s security framework during his visit to Egypt.

During the visit, Xi said regional countries should be “masters of their own ⁠destiny” and consider developing a new regional “security architecture”, according to China’s state news agency Xinhua.

Xi also said China was prepared to cooperate with countries in the region to protect shipping routes.

Xi and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi agreed to strengthen security cooperation and coordination on counterterrorism, Xinhua reported.

Under a joint statement, China and Egypt also agreed to broaden cooperation in data centers, semiconductors and critical minerals supply chains, while promoting greater use of each other’s currencies in trade and investment.

According to a Hamas statement, a senior delegation led by Bassem Naim visited Iran and held talks with Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on the latest developments in Gaza, the occupied West Bank, and occupied Jerusalem.

The delegation briefed Iranian officials on what it described as ongoing Israeli attacks despite the October 2025 ceasefire agreement, conditions in Israeli prisons, and efforts to implement the second phase of the ceasefire roadmap, stressing that Hamas remains committed to the agreement and that Israel has refused to fulfill its obligations.

It also called for international pressure to secure its implementation, humanitarian relief, reconstruction, and a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.

The statement said the discussions also focused on broader challenges facing the Palestinian cause and ways to strengthen support for Palestinian rights.

Iranian officials reaffirmed Tehran’s continued political and material support for the Palestinian people, briefed the Hamas delegation on the latest developments in the confrontation with the United States, and reiterated Iran’s commitment to implementing the agreed roadmap to end the war.

Hamas expressed appreciation for Iran’s support and emphasized the importance of continued consultation and coordination amid rapidly evolving regional developments.

Saudi Arabia’s crude exports fell last month to their lowest level in at least nine years, as attacks on tankers intensified amid escalating tensions in West Asia.

Tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, Vortexa and Kpler showed that Saudi oil exports averaged around 3 million barrels per day in August, the lowest level in records dating back to early 2017. The figure is consistent with estimates from crude traders and a person familiar with Saudi oil operations.

This week, two more tankers carrying Saudi crude were struck by projectiles in the strait. One of the vessels belonged to Saudi shipping company Bahri, which reported that two crew members were killed.

The attacks have made some Saudi customers increasingly hesitant to use the kingdom’s Red Sea ports, forcing Riyadh to consider alternative routes around Africa. Such voyages add thousands of kilometers to shipping routes and further disrupt global supply chains.

Tracking data showed exports through the western port of Yanbu rose to around 4.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in June, from approximately 770,000 bpd in January. Yanbu exports then declined to about 3.7 million bpd in July after Ansarallah announced a blockade on Saudi shipping, before falling further to roughly 2.25 million bpd in August. Meanwhile, shipments through the Persian Gulf, which had recovered slightly to around 800,000 bpd in July, declined again the following month.