And yet, he hasn’t predicted yet because there are many other “keys”. Case-in-point: see how incumbency worked for Trump.
Also should be noted other reputable science-based algorithm designers like Nate Silver advises Biden to step down.
Finally, the unprecedented nature of an open convention also means this guy has nothing to go on for extrapolation.
Meaningless considering he still hasn’t predicted whether or not Biden will win this election. He says he needs another month lol.
Edit: As a bonus he can’t even apply his own rubric to a new potential candidate. So the real questions are: How could he possibly know they’d be worse, and why the fuck is he even saying anything?
To be honest I’ve been enjoying a bowl of frozen wild blueberries as an evening snack. Good antioxidants and fiber to boot but it tastes like icecream for me.
I’ve said the same thing for AOC and I’ll agree to do the same should Porter run.
Katie Porter. Basically a younger Elizabeth Warren (who was taught by Warren no less).
I’m laughing that I submit 2 different focus groups of undecided voters saying the opposite and it’s down-voted into oblivion.
But this copium is upvoted…
A big part of this decision is happening right now at Camp David with his family, according to the article:
President Joe Biden is expected to discuss the future of his re-election campaign with family at Camp David on Sunday, following a nationally televised debate Thursday that left many fellow Democrats worried about his ability to beat former President Donald trump in November, according to five people familiar with the matter.
Let’s face reality:
… Biden asked for that debate because he was desperate to break the downward trend and reach these battleground swing-state voters. That backfired in the worst possible way.
The time is now, before the convention, and with enough time for an alternative candidate to be selected and ramp up campaigning. There are half a dozen candidates who fit the bill and have a semi-national profile, are YOUNGER, and have enough charisma and debate skills to beat Trump — almost by default by being a fresh face and younger
Anyone who says there isn’t enough time doesn’t understand just how much FREE viral media attention this would all receive. Every single person should be pushing for this to happen now. Because if Biden makes another gaffe like this in October or a medical emergency, then we are REALLY fucked.
I would, too, but there are a lot of insane people in America these days my friend.
It’s cute. But this is, of course, a given. And we don’t expect Hitler to do the right thing. We expect Biden to.
There’s something to be said for browsing TV. Having favorites channels and recalling between two different shows between commercials. Sucks if commercials were synced.
Like, some films I wouldn’t put on voluntarily but I’d watch if I caught it on you know? Also found a lot of new stuff I wouldn’t have otherwise seen.
Reading books. Not audiobooks. Not podcasts. Books.
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I’m as flabbergasted as anyone that polls are this close but here we are. Right-wing media controls the narrative and has had a stranglehold on this country. The polls don’t lie; they’re the canary in the coal mine sounding the alarm. So let’s face it: there is no datapoint you can point to that Biden where Biden isn’t doing significantly-worse compared to his 2020 campaign. I don’t give a fuck how you try to spin it, that’s not a good sign. Face hard truths of reality. The propaganda of the right is working with key voting groups whether we like it or not.
Neither cold nor stutter causes someone to jump from abortion to immigration mid-sentence and routinely lose their train of thought. How much experience do you have being around old people? My wife and I work in a hospital, but shit you should he able to relate with grandparents in their 80s. It could even be sundowning. I also don’t believe your 3rd point is doing you any favors. Biden campaigned on being a fighter to push the bully back. If he can’t hold his own as an 81-year-old, then that is very clearly a problem. Someone as experienced as Biden should easily be able to hold their own in a debate, being in politics as long as he has.
Look, I voted for Biden once and if it comes down to it I’d vote for a corpse over Trump. But as I’ve said over and over again: it’s not me you have to convince. The 2020 election was won by 40,000 votes across 3 states. And as I said, by every single metric, Biden is performing far worse than then. Not good. I hate to say it but I’d bet against Biden winning now.
Biden asked for the debate out of desperation to reach voters. They set most of the rules. Both campaigns signed off on the rules. It backfired tremendously, irreparably.
Yeah hubris probably isn’t the way to go when you’re losing in national polls 10 pts below where you were in 2020 at this time… And you’re losing in every battleground state… And you’re losing black and Hispanic voters… And the desperation play of asking for this debate to break the steady decline in polling utterly backfired.
Riddle me this: what if Biden’s condition worsens from here until November and it’s far past the convention to do anything? He’s not getting younger. The bad days, the sundowning will only get worse.
People are itching to vote for anyone but a senile geratric and a criminal geriatric. Give the people what they want.
My parents live with me.
Okay, well, one of them now. They divorced under our roof during covid while my wife was pregnant with our first child. Ah, fun times!
At some point they venture off to hobbies and try to pat themselves on the back with a bit of philanthropy.
Been waiting for this. As NK involvement increases with Russia, I was hoping SK involvement ramped up in favor of Ukraine.
Exactly!! That’s precisely my point! You tried to claim millions of people voted for Biden in the primaries when that doesn’t translate to battleground swing-state voters.
Biden is the guaranteed loss based on all available data we have, relative to his performance in 2020. Those battleground swing voters? Biden is ALREADY losing them. Besides, there’s a non-zero chance that Joe Biden could suffer an emergency health crisis after the convention… And then we’re REALLY fucked because at best we default to Harris who polls worse than everyone.
If you magically think that Newsom can ramp up a presidential campaign from scratch and beat Biden’s name recognition and win Wisconsin in only 6 months, you’re being insanely optimistic.
Yes, he absolutely can and I’m not the only one who believes it. If you don’t think there wouldn’t be a media frenzy over a sudden new face on the scene you’d be crazy. Whitmer, Newsom, or hey – how about Josh Shapiro who actually outperformed Biden himself in Pennsylvania…? If that’s really your concern, after all.
The window of time closes after the Convention. After that, we’re stuck.
I repeat: Biden is performing significantly worse in every single data-point compared to his 2020 run where he eeked a win by sliver. If he was up 20 points I wouldn’t even be saying a word. But after that debate performance seen by 50 million people? Every indicator for the election is only going to get worse for Biden.
Oh I agree, don’t get me wrong. But let’s be honest: Biden doesn’t have the grassroots fundraising that propelled Obama to victory and also gave Bernie a good shot at the primaries for how fringe he was.
Even I who’ve given loads of money in the past am exhausted by the fundraising calls under Biden and at this point post-debate think it’s a wasted investment.
I’m just assuaging concerns about money when you can substitute viral marketing which would naturally come from the unprecedented nature of having an incumbent president step down and endorse some other individual. Months of free coverage.
Well… To be fair there was some shady shit with that race. But put another way, does that mean Schiff would more likely win against Trump than Porter?
But I tend to agree she’s not quite ready yet.