cross-posted from: https://lemmy.ml/post/22680392
Thinking of red states vs blue states is busted. Plenty of good visualizations of this over the years, but this election in particular feels really important to point out “We” did not chose this.
When I say we I mean registered US voters, but even less so citizens, and even less so again residents.
Even of the voters who did vote for the GOP candidate, who can say how many really wanted him or his policies vs they just didn’t want more of the status quo Dems.
The popular vote tallies in this graphic are out of date too, He definitely didn’t win in a landslide the way it can appear with red and blue maps. His win in the popular vote was also pretty small now that more votes have been counted. https://www.thenation.com/…/donald-trump-vote-margin…/
So, what if Biden used broad immunity SCOTUS granted to declare a crisis of democracy - That between massive disinformation campaigns by enemies both foreign and domestic, voter suppression, as well as many other factors, the will of the people can’t be discerned from our recent presidential election. That it would be a dereliction of duty both to the people and to his oath to defend the constitution to hand over power to someone whose clear and declared intent is abuse the power of the office to fundamentally reshape or demolish our republic based on this highly suspect and incomplete result (remember, most people didn’t even vote)
Here is my off the cuff proposal for what to do after that
A new election, everyone must vote. Trump and Harris on the ballot, but each major party must offer 2 candidates, and we’re using Ranked Choice Voting. 1st place gets presidency, 2nd place gets VP.
Biden almost certainly won’t do anything like this. He is clearly a coward with a stupid sense of optimism - a “things will be just fine, no need for any drastic measures” ever, mentality, and despite some rhetoric has shown no signs that he thinks there is anything to actually be concerned about from the party which has veered hard towards fascism. But, hey, a guy can dream.
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Hate to break it to you but “didn’t vote” isn’t a candidate.
So, what if Biden used broad immunity SCOTUS granted to declare a crisis of democracy
You’re proposing that Biden do the very thing you claim to loathe. You’re proposing he engage in the behavior you suspect trump may engage in. Do you realize how unhinged your statements are? Invalidating an election would be the end of American democracy. Forcing people to vote who chose to abstain would be the end of American liberty. You want to do something because you’re afraid it might be done. This was the election. These are the choices people made. Proposing radical responses because you didn’t like the outcome puts you in the same category as the January 6th insurrectionists from 2020.
Second highest voter turn out in US history.
Please Please Please stop this.
Didn’t you hear the “High Voter Turnout!” was media spin, they admitted afterwards that it was low
Source? Because all the numbers seem to agree on it.
Its so far (the counting will not be in for a bit) the second highest voter turn out. No one “admitted” it was low, the numbers above show it was high (second to 2020). This whole endless blaming of “non-voters” is pathetic and the same line of reasoning devalues literally every other election then 2020 held in the USA.
Bro, That makes no sense considering how can voter turnout be high but votes cast was lower than 2020.
Did people just show up and not cast votes?
2020 was highest ever in history (or at least the last few decades). 2024 was slightly less than 2020, but still taking 2nd place in raw numbers. To call that ‘low’ is extremely inaccurate and misleading.
And insulting. It cheapens the whole vote and overall process. I think its terrible the US is still under a two party system but 60% plus is a great turnout for an election when you don’t even give voters choices other then between the ruleing party or a fascist.
2020 was the highest in history of us elections with 65.8% of eligible voters turning in a ballot, 2024 (so far as counted) is 63.7% of eligible voters turning in a ballot. The delta between the second highest (2024) and the highest (2020) is only 2,624,285 votes, and this number will shrink if anything once the official count is in.
You seem to think an over 60% turn out is bad, when it is very high for non mandatory voting. Look at 1988 with a 52.8% turn out and even then no one pulled this weak line of crap out in defense of Dukakis.
The presumption here is that all the non voters would’ve voted against Trump - but even among motivated voters, that wasn’t true. So who’s to say more voters would’ve materially altered the outcome? What makes it likely there’s a different outcome with more voices…? As I remember, it seemed like Kamala was behind all along
Also, the electoral outcomes don’t change much if the yellow state was already aligned to your preference 🤷♂️ my vote wouldn’t change the outcome of my state, years of voting on principle for independent and non incumbents have proven that to me, so why bother voting for the pres?
Especially when it is literally giant douche v turd sandwich - neither option represents a win.
They’re definitely not going to vote for a Democrat if the sitting Democrat president strips them of their liberty and right to abstane, and forces them into a ballot booth.
that’s not the point being made
What, and please tell us the point that is being made?
Is it that the election was not valid? Is it that the Democrats are somehow not the loser? Is it that the majority of Americans showed up to vote?
The people who didn’t vote may not have actively contributed to this, but they certainly did make a conscious choice to allow it to happen when they had the power to stop it.
If you didn’t vote you voted for this
We didn’t vote, for this.
Nice.
maybe not voted but they definitely chose this. choosing to let whatever happens actually happen was a choice.
“I sat on my ass! You’re welcome!”
I’m not happy seeing my state in yellow up there. 😠
Same
A new election, everyone must vote.
This alone is a huge hurdle. There are people who have no form of ID and we have no free national form of ID, so that rules out any state that hard-requires voter ID. One also cannot assume that these people have the documents required (shitty parents, house fire, homelessness) nor the time and money required to get a state ID. Good luck trying to do a national ID as it brings out the crazies. So there would need to be programs on a per-state level to not only identify these people (as in knowing that there is a person like this in x location right now) but also identifying these people (as in their actual identity) and getting them an ID. This ignores that there are plenty of people who do not want to be identified.
- identify all potential eligible voters and their current location for the required parts of the duration of the project
- getting them proper ID as per state requirements
- getting them to a place to vote
- coming up with and enforcing some punishment for those that don’t
Edit: Some of the timing hurdles I mention are also people who work two jobs (or more) with basically no time to themselves just to survive, let alone do all of the above (particularly when there is poor or no public transit and they don’t drive). I lived out of a car for several months when I was 19 or so and a lot of people are a single paycheck away so don’t think it’s a non-issue.
money required to get a state ID
Why wouldn’t this be considered a poll tax. There has to be a way for everyone that is legally allowed to vote to do so for free.
Major political parties: Absolute shameless corruption and self-dealing while a thriving economy that could support families and rewarding living, sharing the unimaginable wealth of the modern world pretty equitably among any working person, collapses into an Uber-driving no health insurance hellscape. Give vote pls tho
Voters: Man fuck this
Major political parties: Shocked Pikachu face
Voters: Don’t really care about news or politics or really anything except video games and vape, I heard on social media that Biden is bad for the economy and Facebook has never lied to me in the past. I’m going to sit home and whack off instead of trying to effect some positive change in our politics
Trump: Hey just so you know, I’m going to have the military start shooting people I don’t like, pretty much the instant I’m back in power
Voters: Shocked Pikachu face
Edit: Typo
Yep. I hate everything.
I don’t think lemmy has the level of literacy or patience to read what you’ve written. I say this as a fan of creative writing.
Me understood. Me smort
It’s not about intelligence, it’s just the capacity to read comments more than three sentences long without getting frustrated and downvoting. It was at -2 when I pointed out Lemmy’s attention span. Feel free to verify the lemmy sentence limit yourself.
I can’t, because I chose an instance without downvoting 💖
It was in the positive from the beginning for me. And I really do prefer it that way.
I just assume anything overly verbose or well structured is Ai written and gloss over it.
How many of the non-voters would vote if online voting was an option? I am sure there are many technical hurdles for online voting, but surely it would increase turnout and is not too far out of the realm of possibility?
It’s a terrible idea the more you look into it. Seems great at first for sure, but you do not want it. Too easy to mess with it.
Its pretty difficult to do… Cleo Abrams has an amazing video about this exact thing. If you want the shorter version of the video, here you go.
Online voting for the US election allows for much much easier tampering from foreign and domestic powers. It’s a method with way to many severe issues to use on a massive scale, as convenient as it would be.
Paper creates a better physical trail to avoid tampering. The time commitment should be reduced by allowing voting by mail, even better if it’s mandatory. Easily enforced with a tax break for participating and just sending back a receipt of vote recorded accurately.
Statistically it doesn’t matter The central limit theorem, would allow for a sample size as small as 500 people randomly distributed to be an accurate representation of a group of trillions, it is a bit more complicated than that since the us is not random but carefully crafted districts, but as long as 50-100 people voted is each district or even the majority of districts then adding more people is just redundant.
The central limit theorem, would allow for a sample size as small as 500 people randomly distributed to be an accurate representation of a group of trillions,
This is a completely mandatory assumption for the math to work.
The second there is any selection bias at all it completely falls apart.
central limit theorem also requires the random variables to be independent, which in this case would mean that people’s voting habits are not affected by the voting habits of other people in the sample population. this would start to cause problems for big sample sizes.
That is why you would apply it to each district not the entire county.
if your sample size needs to be small in order to apply the theorem, maybe it is not the best tool for understanding the behavior of the entire population. especially not if the underlying math requires the possibility of growing your sample size to infinity. (this is the “limit” part of the central limit theorem.)
It is obviously true with a 500/1 trillion ratio, but a 100/100,000 is a big difference and that is just the random number I chose the actual ratio is closer to 88/334 (88 million people who didn’t vote. 334 million population)
The 500/1 Trillion in the central limit theorem is the absolutely most optimistic exaggeration to prove a point, but it maintains true to a lesser effect when some variation is introduced.
It doesn’t matter. The core, foundational assumption that the entire thing stands on is the selection is completely random.
It does not apply, and cannot provide valid statistical inferences about the target population, if that is not the case. People who chose to vote are not representative of the population as a whole.
I would argue that the people who showed up to vote is a perfectly random selection of people who would have shown up to vote if you extrapolate the numbers out under identical circumstances for each city town district state, etc , I would also concede that the sheer increase in voters would affect who votes, I would not how ever say this alters my conclusion because there is no way to know what way it would alter them making it another random variable.
You would argue incorrectly. That’s not what random means.
You cannot use the central limit theorem in any context where the selection of the small sample is not random. It is not applicable.
I like how you briefly acknowledge that this isn’t a random sample, but then hand wave it away and act like the same conclusions can be drawn from it as though it were a random sample.
I bring you a bag of red and blue balls to sample from, but before this I let a guy who really likes blue balls take some balls out of the bag. After taking a sampling from the bag, you conclude that there are many more red balls than blue balls. Is this a valid representation of the population?
Oh no, that’s not what I’m saying at all, it is %100 biased but changing the total number of voters will not change which direction is biased to.
That holds only if you assume that random chance decides whether someone votes or not. That is a big assumption to make. A lot of factors that affect your ability or willingness to vote also affect your political leaning, so I highly doubt that it’s a reasonable assumption.
No, that is true as long as all external factors remain constant, if X went off the air and suddenly we have a decrease of republican’s the ratio would change, however if both sides pushed harder and got more total voters it would stay consistent.
Sure… but what use is that analysis? There’s no magic magnitude dial that scales the vote counts evenly. The vote counts reflect the reality of the situation. Who has easier access to voting? Who believes that there is a candidate worth voting for? Etc. Even if we were just talking about “both sides pushing harder” they’re not going to be equally effective at it.
This isn’t a uniformly selected sample. People who are more aligned with Trump are probably also more likely to vote, which makes them overly represented.
Yes but increasing the total amount of votes don’t affect the ratio
Say 100% of all people who are more aligned with Trump voted for him. No potential Trump voter stayed at home. 50% of all people who are more aligned with Kamala decided to stay at home. If everyone who didn’t vote voted for the candidate they align most with, then Kamala would double her votes, while Trump would gain none.
Overly simplified example, but demonstrates the point.
I have no shame in not voting anymore. There’s nothing that’s gonna change anyways. Find me someone who can actually change our living conditions and isn’t out for themselves. I’m tired of trying to determine who’s lying or who’s the best of the worst situation. I avoided politics pretty damn well up until 2016. I say this from the very depths of my soul, fuck America. It’s full of racist pieces of shit just trying to load their pockets and turning every single one of us citizens against each other.
For those people who say “then leave” hand me the money and I’m gone.
All I want is for people to have food, home, and health but because some how in this country that’s been turned into a political statement instead of a way of life. The country can’t grow if we don’t…
I hear you on just wanting what’s best for your community, but checking out will only harm them further. Our communities need support now more than ever. I’m not trying to harp, either, I get it. I am demoralized as fuck these days, and honestly have little to zero hope for humanity in general. But even so, I won’t be a part of letting these fucks just walk into office unopposed. Votes matter, and especially at the local level. Vote for the best candidates at all levels, every election. I am not even suggesting that means your choices must be for a democrat, vote independent if that’s who the best option is. I live in a blue state, but my county historically leans red. What’s promising is that even in this shit show of a situation, a couple postions that usually go red went to non-red people this time (yes, someone who ran without party affiliation won, AND they were running against a Republican). I hope my community can keep that trend moving. Nobody good is going to get through without support. Be there to support the people who have the guts to try to unfuck this mess.
Maga thanks you for your support.
Preach
There’s nothing that’s gonna change anyways. Find me someone who can actually change our living conditions
Oh, you’re so pessimistic. With Trump in control of the courts, it’s soon going to be completely legal (in practice, not in writing) to murder queer people. He’s also going to increase coal and oil production and murder millions through droughts and other natural disasters. There’s so much that’s open to change.
You said you wanted change. Congratulations, you get what you want.
fuck America. it’s full of racist pieces of shit just trying to load their pockets and turning every single one of us citizens against each other.
I feel you on this point. I am new to this though and you seem like you’ve been here for a bit. I was pretty patriotic for a lefty but this election broke all of that.
I do have a disagreement and a counter argument though. America is not “full” of these people, although I won’t argue there are clearly a great many, without question. There are good people everywhere, like you (and I hope me too), who have their priorities in order. The good people won’t compromise though, to their credit usually, but we have to play chess in order to change the rules. That means winning with votes. That means good people will have to learn to compromise. Unless you are willing to run for office. I’ll vote for you. I don’t want you to leave (and I don’t have the money, sorry).
I’m trying to tell you that you are looking at it backwards, and its intentional. The purpose is to make you (me, everyone opposed) so frustrated and defeated that we won’t vote. Please fucking vote.
Do you vote in primaries, and other, non presidential, elections?
