Are they gonna do a Ukraine 2 against China? If yes, why would they ever think it would work after the Ukraine disaster? Against China of all countries? Using tiny Nepal of all countries?
My best guess is Nepal will be used to try and force a divide between India and China. Idk if they’ll pull some Ukraine-style land dispute that pulls one or the other into invading and causes border drama, or if they’re just going to use it as a base for ethno-nationalist tensions and trying to tear the Himalayan region apart through sedition. Hopefully both countries can keep the shit contained and, within another decade, we’ll see leftists booting out the puppets in Nepal again.
Nepal is too tiny for that to work and not a strategic threat to China in the way Ukraine is to Russia. They have the Himalayas between them which makes for a good barrier.
What they can do is impede connectivity infrastructure projects between China and India going through Nepal.
Yeah, but i think in the long run this is a bit like fighting gravity. You can cause temporary setbacks but the force of gravity exerted by the rise of China, the rise of the global south, and the economic reorientation of the world away from the West is going to pull countries like Nepal back into the orbit of the larger economies in their immediate neighborhood. Even a regime that comes to power via a western orchestrated coup or color revolution has no choice but to work with China, because they are the biggest game in town.
Exactly, these kinds of maneuvers slow down the process, but they don’t change overall direction of travel. They also tie up finite resources the US has.
Are they gonna do a Ukraine 2 against China? If yes, why would they ever think it would work after the Ukraine disaster? Against China of all countries? Using tiny Nepal of all countries?
My best guess is Nepal will be used to try and force a divide between India and China. Idk if they’ll pull some Ukraine-style land dispute that pulls one or the other into invading and causes border drama, or if they’re just going to use it as a base for ethno-nationalist tensions and trying to tear the Himalayan region apart through sedition. Hopefully both countries can keep the shit contained and, within another decade, we’ll see leftists booting out the puppets in Nepal again.
Nepal is too tiny for that to work and not a strategic threat to China in the way Ukraine is to Russia. They have the Himalayas between them which makes for a good barrier.
What they can do is impede connectivity infrastructure projects between China and India going through Nepal.
I think that’s exactly it, the plan is to just make it harder to move good around by creating instability in the region.
Yeah, but i think in the long run this is a bit like fighting gravity. You can cause temporary setbacks but the force of gravity exerted by the rise of China, the rise of the global south, and the economic reorientation of the world away from the West is going to pull countries like Nepal back into the orbit of the larger economies in their immediate neighborhood. Even a regime that comes to power via a western orchestrated coup or color revolution has no choice but to work with China, because they are the biggest game in town.
Exactly, these kinds of maneuvers slow down the process, but they don’t change overall direction of travel. They also tie up finite resources the US has.