Problem is that Gates isn’t really “in the loop” and doesn’t have especially valuable insight.
His position in tech was always a bit removed from the core technologist work, and now his exposure is a telephone game with people that are as distant from the tech as he was.
It is really going around with no shortage of commentators spewing out guesswork, but Gates is given more credibility by virtue of his role 30 years ago.
I said that a year ago, and half a year ago, too, expecting the S curve to hit and the technology to flatten out at some upper limit. But instead we got the agent loop, and models that make really good use of it, the releases only get faster and faster, and real improvements with each one, either faster and cheaper, but just as good, or actually a good deal more capable. I’m seeing signs of behavior that is more than just a good auto complete, and think there is actual intelligence.
Even should the S curve start to turn towards slowing down now ( and it doesn’t look like it), the ceiling that it’s going towards is so high, I am with Bill Gates here. We are not prepared for what is coming.
I also don’t agree that they have any actual intelligence, but this is definitely not AI psychosis. AI psychosis is a pervasive pattern of delusional thinking and not just one thought you disagree with
AI psychosis is what I accused by precious boss of, when he fabulated about replacing all his employees based on gpt-4o. What we have today is something completely different.
Also, I’m not anthropomorphize these things. Intelligence is not a uniquely human quality.
He doesn’t take about what is, he talks about what’s coming.
Problem is that Gates isn’t really “in the loop” and doesn’t have especially valuable insight.
His position in tech was always a bit removed from the core technologist work, and now his exposure is a telephone game with people that are as distant from the tech as he was.
It is really going around with no shortage of commentators spewing out guesswork, but Gates is given more credibility by virtue of his role 30 years ago.
That’s a fair point. I just don’t know if the future they see can become a reality.
I said that a year ago, and half a year ago, too, expecting the S curve to hit and the technology to flatten out at some upper limit. But instead we got the agent loop, and models that make really good use of it, the releases only get faster and faster, and real improvements with each one, either faster and cheaper, but just as good, or actually a good deal more capable. I’m seeing signs of behavior that is more than just a good auto complete, and think there is actual intelligence.
Even should the S curve start to turn towards slowing down now ( and it doesn’t look like it), the ceiling that it’s going towards is so high, I am with Bill Gates here. We are not prepared for what is coming.
I suggest you be real careful not to anthropomorphize these systems. To me this sounds almost like AI psychosis.
I also don’t agree that they have any actual intelligence, but this is definitely not AI psychosis. AI psychosis is a pervasive pattern of delusional thinking and not just one thought you disagree with
I agree. That’s why I said “almost.” But AI psychosis starts with recognizing these things as sentient.
AI psychosis is what I accused by precious boss of, when he fabulated about replacing all his employees based on gpt-4o. What we have today is something completely different.
Also, I’m not anthropomorphize these things. Intelligence is not a uniquely human quality.