I have no idea how while Trump is a) ripping out the underpinnings of constitutional law which, in turn, is all that holds up all other laws (including transactional) in the US AND b) ripping apart the post war Western defense alliance leaving Europe and Australia completely exposed and vulnerable AND c) going to impose global reciprocal tariffs, which are going to kill trade and plunge the country and the world into the greatest economic depression (coincidentally) since the 1930’s, how the market isn’t down 75% - 90% by this point. Hopes & Dreams? Hallucinogens? Heroin?
What power on earth is allowing Hedge Funds, Banks and Small Investors the justification to keep betting on an underlying business system which is literally being pulled apart at the seams with no real hope of being functional shortly. How is this happening. It’s like I’m taking crazy pills every day. The market should look at what Trump’s already done (much less what he still promises to do) and say, whoop that’s us, we’re audi, this is insane, we can’t trade our value as a corporation any longer, we don’t know where supplies, labor, administration, distribution, sales, or any law governing any of it stands, we have to pull all our monies out, and put them someplace safe like our pockets.
What is happening to keep the market propped up, when literally everything, everywhere that it needs for stability in projected earnings is being hollowed out beneath it?
edit 2/20 : lol edit 2/21: lol
Trump is a businessman, and apparently a good one if you look at his past results, like it or not.
Hence, business making is what he does and encourages in the American populous, again, like it or not.
Of course a Trump presidency will stimulate the stock market. It is what it is.
He bankrupt a casino. Doesn’t sound like good businessman.
how the market isn’t down 75% - 90% by this point.
I keep asking myself this same question as I stare at my retirement savings in what seems like trump’s crosshairs. I only have a few possible answers, and none of them are enough to explain the continued high valuations.
The only things i know are: “the market is irrational” and “time in the market beats timing the market”. How long before the crash occurs? How much gains are lost if I pull it out too early? Days? Years? Even if I were to pull everything out now, when would I know its safe to put it back in? Would I accurately be able to determine the bottom of the market and magically put it all back in to reap the spoils? If the damage trump does to our country destroys the value of the dollar, then even having pulled everything to cash would mean it would be in (at that time) worthless US Dollars.
I’m simply not that smart to execute that successfully and I don’t pretend to be.
The “full faith and credit of the united states government” as expressed and guaranteed in American dollars, is probably pretty safe for a while at least, as most of the world’s nations economies still base their own currency on the us dollar, but that’s going to unravel at some point sooner than later i imagine
The “full faith and credit of the united states government” as expressed and guaranteed in American dollars, is probably pretty safe for a while at least,
February 10, 2025 quotes from the article:
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Trump says some Treasury payments might ‘not count’
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“We’re even looking at Treasuries,” Trump said. “There could be a problem - you’ve been reading about that, with Treasuries and that could be an interesting problem.”
If trump decides to not pay on US Treasury Bills even ONE TIME, that’s the whole ball game. The indestructible, ever-present, no-safer-investment-literally-anywhere-in-the-world is gone forever. The USA is able to be the nation it is because we are allowed to borrow money from the rest of the entire world and unbelievably low interest rates. If we’re forced to pay higher rates on our T-bills because we aren’t trustworthy anymore we will immediately drown in our $36.22 trillion national debt.
Pretty sure that’s the goal tbh. It’s like how these techbros crash a business and walk off with all the assets. They’re trying on countries now.
Maybe part of the plan is to own the debt owed by the US, and then just break assets off as “compensation”. It’s like a thin veneer of capitalism and deregulation being spread over what happened to the assets of the USSR when it fell in the early 90s.
And yes, that’s a pointed parallel: I do sincerely believe we’re looking at the beginning of the real fall of America as a contiguous country and meaningful world power. I say that as an American.
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Other countries starting to set up trade relationships not based on the dollar - now that’s a threat to the stilts propping up the American economy, for sure. Tariffs as well though I think many don’t believe they are truly going to materialize as threatened. When you say “gestures at everything,” what actually are the main things that you think should be sinking the economy as a whole? DOGE bullshit, federal agency heads resigning, DEI programs being cancelled, betraying Gaza and Ukraine… it’s all bad but most of it does not seem an immediate existential economic threat. What am I missing?
Hmm I dunno, but maybe it is time to diversify. Into euros, yens, and probably yuans. How do you think?
first off, your trading account is in some financial institution that might itself shatter. without a federal rescue boat to save the little people. second, if the us economy actually collapses 80+%, nowhere else is safe. the european union and japan couldnt fend for itself without the current power balance holding firm. china is in a terrible state itself already. no easy answers.
Yeah, trading account needs some caution, indeed. If nowhere else is safe… I guess the answer is the real gold? That’s quite difficult. Do you think 80% collapse would come? That’s gotta be quite wild, I was more thinking of general market crash.
if you knew the correct timing/scale/scope you could be crazy rich from it all. nobody knows, even those causing it. personally ive been out of the stock market for 5 years expecting a crash and it hasnt happened yet.
Gold will not hold value if the market crashes like that. Food, water, and land will be what holds value.
A little while ago the entire market went red. If it’s doing well now then that’s only comparative to everything going on then.
That said, gutting regulations certainly will boost profits short term, if you care more about that than human life and happiness.
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S&P500 closed at an all-time high yesterday. It’s not just up relative to a downturn.
US 30, DOW Jones, and NASDAQ all peaked a little higher in November-December last year. Crude Oil futures haven’t recovered from their 2022 high. USD to Euro is down since 2018 high and USD to GBP is down since 2016.
But yes if you look at charts going back over a decade there is a clear unbreaking “line goes up” trend. In fact, you could argue the charts have an almost asymptotic trend you see right before bubbles pop, possibly due to misevaluating AI.
What the fuck are you even talking about?
Stock market is basically meme gambling these days no different from crypto. Its not a reliable indicator of anything.
It’s almost like financial value is artificially assigned or something, and not, like, intrinsic.
To expand: the economy runs on many fuels. Progress, yes. But also blood.
The progress is also made of blood
Blood from crushed orphans is up 300% this year! 📈
Have we checked inside the billionaires to see what they are made of ?
I hear they’re full of candy, like a fat bloated piñata.
Then we should string them up in a tree and beat them with sticks,
… To get the candy.
yes financial value isn’t intrinsic, it’s created, but it’s created by group acclimation, a thing is worth what a) someone of a group of someones says it’s worth AND by b) a second group who is willing to pay what the first group has valued that thing at, for that thing. but it’s an understanding, which is based in observable, recordable, and prooveable metrics BASED equally on the intangible of trust in the underlying business system upon which it is offered. That second bit can’t exist in the current environment, when the Constitution and all law based on it, are becoming meaningless.
The people with the money are the ones running shit. Everything works until they say it doesn’t. Or until we all do.
You kind of get it with your own answer but are refusing to see it.
Why hasn’t the market dropped yet with all the fuckery going on in DC? Because the impact of said fuckery has not occurred yet. Let this be a chance for some awareness of your own personal information bubble and possible over doom scrolling.
This is not saying this administration isn’t going to cause some terrible shit. It just hasn’t stuck yet. Nothing the administration has done has prevented Microsoft or Google or Netflix from collecting their subscription fees. The closest thing so far has been tariffs that came and went.
The closest thing so far has been tariffs that came and went.
For the record, they were only delayed for 30 days, not cancelled.
Also, Trump just announced some more today, so that’s fun.
You’re right that the actual brunt of the effects haven’t hit yet, though.
Why hasn’t the market dropped yet with all the fuckery going on in DC? Because the impact of said fuckery has not occurred yet.
This is s completely incorrect take on the stock market.
Rule #1 of the stock market is that none understands how it responds to inputs.
Rule #2 is that it attempts to factor in future expectations, so if you wait for something to happen, the impact is already accounted for in the price if the stock.
Market frenzy, people piling on when FOMO takes over, etc all make it impossible to have any level of certainty. So it’s a valid question to ask why all of the current fuckery has not translated into market chaos.
So it’s a valid question to ask why all of the current fuckery has not translated into market chaos.
My reply addresses this with your 2nd point. What I’m trying to say is that maybe the market did factor in the fuckery and has so far believed it to be a nothing burger.
Everyone could be wrong, of course, but so far that is what the markets indicates. So naturally the follow up questions should be, are the markets wrong? Or am I (OP) consuming too much media from my bubble which is overexaggerating the doom and gloom?
Much stock value is artificial, but these companies still have infrastructure, brands and products.
these companies still have infrastructure, brands and products.
And you assume this has intrinsic value? Brands and products?
If you woke up tomorrow and had full rights to the name Coca Cola™, would that not be of extreme value to you? Of course it doesn’t have the intrinsic value of a gold brick, but it’s still valuable and stock fluctuations won’t change that fact.
And you assume this has intrinsic value?
I assume they’re making a point about hard assets versus pure speculation, like comparing real estate to crypto coins.
And these things are truly worth a fraction of their assigned value - and no value at all to those who aren’t interested in them. The plumbing inside Microsoft is worthless to me except to maybe make a bong, but it’s worth billions to the company that requires it.
It’s called 401ks, literally anyone with a 9-5 job has one. The entire retirement system was designed to keep people invested in the stock market and betting on it.
Not all of us. I prefer hard metals.
Ya beat me to it. Working class people got tricked into turning over their income to be a floor for the US stock market. I always decline 401k benefits at corpo jobs and I love the looks of bewilderment and attempted lectures I’ve received. It’s pretty obvious that HR or someone gets kickbacks for enrolling new employees.
Because the speculative “economy” necessarily grows faster than the actual economy.
Money and 1/2 of Economics is based on magic and “religious” belief.
$5 parking right next to the bread line. Not bad.
I think that’s 25¢
Which is around $5 in today’s dollars.
What’s sad is that $5 parking is a killer deal.
Ah I see. Thanks for clarifying your intent.
keeping its* value
I pulled my money out when he took office. There WILL be a crash and recession, and it will be intentional. There will be all kinds of irrational exuberence to get everyone all in, and then crash it to mop up the spoils and expand the wealth gap.
Did you have a 401k or an IRA? Where did you put it to not get taxed on it?
I have an ABLE account, for people on SSI. It is untaxed, though there is a small fee for just the money to be managed. It is handy, since there is a $2,000 limit on the wealth beneficiaries can have - the ABLE account allows for up to $100,000 to be in there before most benefits are lost. It also invests the money into a stock/bonds/FDIC portfolio of your choosing. If you have enough wealth, you can just deposit money in there until you reach $500,000ish cap for what you can add.
It is really helpful for the poor, since we don’t have many methods for storing wealth that doesn’t involve a mattress. Also, ABLE accounts should be state owned - theoretically insulating them from Musk’s grubby paws. Unfortunately, my state’s ABLE program doesn’t permit Euros, so I suspect no ABLE to be safe from hyperinflation.
Why would you give a fuck about taxes? I just dont want it all lost or stolen
Because of the cuts. It’ll be a year or so of smooth sailing… then, as the chickens come home to roost: nosedive.
Because it’s now completely disconnected from the reality of the actual economy. It has been for a very long time. It has to do with how much money is funneled into the wealthiest hands.
Yes, human history is a very long time.
What power on earth is allowing Hedge Funds, Banks and Small Investors the justification to keep betting on an underlying business system which is literally being pulled apart at the seams …
When you’re a hammer, everything is a nail. That’s all they know how to do, and they still have enough capital to keep doing it.
There are insane mistakes being made multiple times a day now. At some point, the high stakes game of Don’t Break the Ice will come to a sudden end. Putting the cubes back in the game board would require an expenditure of capital. Capitalists spend money to buy more money. The only time they spend money to avoid losing money is when they’ve lost money for a very specific reason multiple times, and maybe not even then.
The visual helped.
There is a economic name for it called a Minsky moment. While I think most of economics is a joke this is one of the only valuable things from the field of economics.
Because the stock market doesn’t reflect real life
